Professor OH EUN YOUNG of Kookmin University Publishes Paper on Analysis of Changes in China’s Monetary Policy in an SSCI-Indexed International Journal
- 26.03.20 / 홍유민
A paper by a research team led by Professor OH EUN YOUNG (first author and corresponding author) of the KMU International Business School (KIBS) at Kookmin University (President Jeong Seung Ryul), titled “Dynamics of monetary policy regimes in China under rising global uncertainty: A time-varying approach (Analysis of Changes in China’s Monetary Policy Regimes Amid Rising Global Uncertainty: A Time-Varying Approach) has been published in the international finance journal *Finance Research Letters* (JCR Impact Factor 6.9, top 5% in the Finance field).
This study analyzes the impact of global policy uncertainty on the Chinese economy and monetary policy, and empirically examines how policy responses have changed in line with shifts in China’s monetary policy regime. Professor Georgios Magkonis of the University of Portsmouth (UK) and Professor Shuonan Zhang of the University of Southampton (UK) participated as co-authors.
Professor OH EUN YOUNG’s research team at Kookmin University applied a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR-SV) model using monthly data to analyze the impact of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on China’s output, prices, and monetary policy. The analysis revealed that in the 2000s, when global uncertainty shocks occurred, output and prices fell significantly, and the People’s Bank of China tended to respond with aggressive monetary easing policies.
In contrast, since the 2010s, under the so-called “New Normal” policy regime, the responses of economic variables and monetary policy have shown a more moderate and stable pattern compared to the past. Furthermore, the study confirmed that China’s monetary policy has shifted toward prioritizing inflation stabilization over fluctuations in output. This suggests that as China’s monetary policy gradually transitions to a forward-looking policy framework, the economy’s resilience to external shocks is strengthening.
Professor OH EUN YOUNG of Kookmin University stated, “This study empirically demonstrates that the way the Chinese economy and monetary policy respond to global policy uncertainty varies depending on changes in the policy framework,” adding, “It shows that as China’s monetary policy has recently evolved into a forward-looking policy framework centered on price stability, the economy’s stability and resilience to external shocks have increased.”
This study is significant in that it analyzes the impact of global uncertainty on emerging market monetary policy from the perspective of institutional change, and it provides important academic and policy implications for understanding monetary policy responses in an environment of global economic uncertainty.
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Professor OH EUN YOUNG of Kookmin University Publishes Paper on Analysis of Changes in China’s Monetary Policy in an SSCI-Indexed International Journal |
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2026-03-20
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A paper by a research team led by Professor OH EUN YOUNG (first author and corresponding author) of the KMU International Business School (KIBS) at Kookmin University (President Jeong Seung Ryul), titled “Dynamics of monetary policy regimes in China under rising global uncertainty: A time-varying approach (Analysis of Changes in China’s Monetary Policy Regimes Amid Rising Global Uncertainty: A Time-Varying Approach) has been published in the international finance journal *Finance Research Letters* (JCR Impact Factor 6.9, top 5% in the Finance field).
This study analyzes the impact of global policy uncertainty on the Chinese economy and monetary policy, and empirically examines how policy responses have changed in line with shifts in China’s monetary policy regime. Professor Georgios Magkonis of the University of Portsmouth (UK) and Professor Shuonan Zhang of the University of Southampton (UK) participated as co-authors.
Professor OH EUN YOUNG’s research team at Kookmin University applied a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR-SV) model using monthly data to analyze the impact of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on China’s output, prices, and monetary policy. The analysis revealed that in the 2000s, when global uncertainty shocks occurred, output and prices fell significantly, and the People’s Bank of China tended to respond with aggressive monetary easing policies.
In contrast, since the 2010s, under the so-called “New Normal” policy regime, the responses of economic variables and monetary policy have shown a more moderate and stable pattern compared to the past. Furthermore, the study confirmed that China’s monetary policy has shifted toward prioritizing inflation stabilization over fluctuations in output. This suggests that as China’s monetary policy gradually transitions to a forward-looking policy framework, the economy’s resilience to external shocks is strengthening.
Professor OH EUN YOUNG of Kookmin University stated, “This study empirically demonstrates that the way the Chinese economy and monetary policy respond to global policy uncertainty varies depending on changes in the policy framework,” adding, “It shows that as China’s monetary policy has recently evolved into a forward-looking policy framework centered on price stability, the economy’s stability and resilience to external shocks have increased.”
This study is significant in that it analyzes the impact of global uncertainty on emerging market monetary policy from the perspective of institutional change, and it provides important academic and policy implications for understanding monetary policy responses in an environment of global economic uncertainty.
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